Africa’s economic growth to exceed global projection – AfDB

Akinwumi Adesina

Africa’s economic growth will outpace the rest of the world’s economy over the next two years, the African Development Bank Group said in a report.

In a report titled, ‘Africa’s macroeconomic performance and outlook’, the continent’s real Gross Domestic Product was projected to average four per cent in 2023 and 2024, higher than projected global averages of 2.7 per cent and 3.2 per cent.

The report showed that all the continent’s five regions remained resilient with a steady outlook for the medium-term, despite facing significant headwinds due to global socio-economic shocks.

It also identified potential risks and called for robust monetary and fiscal measures, backed by structural policies, to address them.

The report showed that the estimated average growth of real GDP in Africa slowed to 3.8 per cent in 2022, from 4.8 per cent in 2021 amid significant challenges following the COVID-19 shock and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, the report sent a cautionary note on the outlook following current global and regional risks.

The risks, according to the report, included soaring food and energy prices, tightening global financial conditions, and the associated increase in domestic debt service costs. Climate change with its damaging impact on domestic food supply and the potential risk of policy reversal in countries holding elections in 2023 posed equally challenging threats.

The report advocated bold policy actions at national, regional, and global scales to help African economies mitigate the compounding risks.

The African Development Bank Group President, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, said the release of the new report came at a time when African economies, faced with significant headwinds, were proving their resilience.

He said, “With 54 countries at different stages of growth, different economic structures, and diverse resource endowments, the pass-through effects of global shocks always differ by region and by country.

“Slowing global demand, tighter financial conditions, and disrupted supply chains, therefore, had differentiated impacts on African economies.

“Despite the confluence of multiple shocks, growth across all five African regions was positive in 2022—and the outlook for 2023–24 is projected to be stable.”

Africa’s pre-COVID-19 top five performing economies were projected to grow by more than 5.5 per cent on average in 2023-2024 and to reclaim their position among the world’s 10 fastest-growing economies.

The countries are Rwanda 7.9 per cent, Côte d’Ivoire 7.1 per cent, Benin 6.4 per cent, Ethiopia 6.0 per cent, and Tanzania 5.6 per cent.

Other African countries were projected to grow by more than 5.5 per cent in the 2023 and 2024 economic calendar.

They include the Democratic Republic of Congo with expected growth of 6.8 per cent, Gambia with 6.4 per cent growth projection, Mozambique with 6.5 per cent growth forecast, Niger with 9.6 per cent expected growth rate, Senegal and Togo with expectations of  9.4 per cent, and 6.3 per cent growth.

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