Manchester City might be the reigning English, European and world champions – but they are no longer the favourites to win the Premier League, according to new statistics.
City are probably the best team in the world at the moment, coming off the back of a sensational Treble in 2022-23, but they are yet to start firing at their ferocious and ruthless best this term.
That being said, Pep Guardiola’s side are still third in the table, four points off top with a game in hand so they remain well within the conversation, and their previous pedigree has still kept them as favourites for many.
The Citizens had looked close to going on one of their fearsome ‘runs’ where they appear all but unstoppable, but they came across something of a road block against Chelsea at the weekend.
A late Rodri equaliser spared their blushes after Raheem Sterling came back to haunt his former club in the first half, the game finishing 1-1 and City dropping points – which would appear to have hurt their chances of retaining their crown.
Pep Guardiola’s side fell to a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea on Saturday in a blow to their title chances
The reigning champions saw their title ambitions take a 17 per cent hit as they lost further ground
Erik ten Hag’s side have been in good form of late and have seen their Champions League hopes improve
According to Twenty First Group data, Man City are now only second favourites to go all the way – but only by a single percentage point.
That comes after a gameweek that saw City’s chances take a 17 per cent hit, while Liverpool’s improved by 11 per cent and Arsenal’s by seven per cent.
Despite a drastic summer overhaul, Liverpool are now edging out the champions, and lead the way with a 38 per cent chance of winning the title.
The Reds are top of the table on 57 points, having lost just two games all year, and are still in with a shout of winning the Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Premier League this term.
They will also perhaps be driven on by the fact that their talismanic manager Jurgen Klopp has already announced his intentions to leave the club at the end of the campaign, with everyone at Anfield aiming to send him off as a champion once again.
Behind the Reds are City on 37 per cent, with Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal – runners-up in 2022-23 – in third, on 25 per cent.
The Gunners have had another impressive season, although a wobble in the festive period saw them fall off the pace.
However, victory over Liverpool earlier in February sign-posted a return to their best form, and they have since scored 21 goals in five games.
City’s draw has seen them slip to second place as Liverpool over take them on percentage chance to lift the title
Jurgen Klopp’s side are top of the table and have now overtaken Man City as the most likely champions
Arsenal have been in blistering form of late after scoring 21 goals in five games to put them second in the table
Arteta and Co are only two points behind Liverpool now in second place, and despite taking four points from the Reds and three from City already this term, are deemed the third-most likely champions by Twenty First Group.
There is then a sizeable drop-off to fourth and fifth, with both Aston Villa and Tottenham given less than a one per cent chance of winning the title – the only other teams above zero.
In terms of the race for the Champions League spots, each of the top three have more than a 99 per cent chance of securing qualification, perhaps understandably.
Villa and Spurs have a 73 per cent and 62 per cent chance respectively of making the competition, while Manchester United (28 per cent), Newcastle (seven per cent), Chelsea (five per cent), Brighton (four per cent) and West Ham (one per cent) are outside contenders.
Tottenham however have seen their chances of qualification take a 16 per cent hit after losing 2-1 at home to Wolves on Saturday, while United’s hopes are up six percent amid their own mini-resurgence.
Unai Emery’s Villa seemingly had the best week of the lot, their hopes of finishing in the Champions league spots increasing by 12 per cent after they beat Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.
Data from Twenty First Group shows how the recent gameweek has altered the odds of Premier League Success and Champions League qualification this term
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham have seen their Champions League hopes drop after defeat by Wolves at home on Saturday
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest’s win over West Ham saw them receive a boost in the bid to beat the drop.
They now stand 12 per cent better off in their relegation battle, while Luton have dropped by nine per cent.
The three sides promoted to the top-flight at the start of the season still rank as the most likely candidates for demotion, with Luton at 71 per cent, Burnley at 92 per cent and Sheffield United almost a certainty for the drop at 98 per cent.
Despite currently sitting in the bottom three and receiving a 10-point penalty, Sean Dyche’s Everton are only the fourth-most likely side to go down, with an 18 per cent relegation chance.
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